- We have no prior data related to the variety grown on the block
- We have no prior data related to THIS block, but we do know about similar blocks
- We have a reasonable set of data about the variety and the region.
- A statistical modelling approach
Samples are considered “as a whole”, and each sample is decorated with likely influential factors (e.g. variety and region). Using specialist statistical software, it is then possible to analyse the effect of each factor on ripening speed.
This is an unsupervised machine learning method CSIRO has perfected.
- A physics/chemistry approach
Samples are considered as time series, each vintage being a period of a block ripening signal. Each period is considered independent from the previous periods.
Samples are then analysed to test candidate ripening equations. This is a supervised machine learning method Thoughtpool has developed.
- extend and stabilise predictions in typical weather conditions:
The planning benefits are important as good samples in an easy vintage will result in transient/unreliable dates using OPW (as a result of the linear bias), whereas it will result in stable dates with non linear models.
As a result, less time is spent adapting a plan when there is no need to.
- actually model the effects of atypical weather:
The planning benefits are also important as good samples in a difficult vintage MUST result in fleeting dates to reflect the changing conditions. This additional level of modelling is impossible to conduct over a biased ripening model.
Better maturity prediction
More accurate predictions of grape maturity with a longer planning horizon
Latest updates from the blog …
We've been spending some time thinking about how we price the Harvest Plan service, and the discussion usually comes down to a relationship to what we call, here in Australia at least, a “block”. What does that mean? What is a block? How do we define it so we can use...read more
In closing the last post, we introduced our prediction widget, which is a playground to get a feel for how predictions work. It is a graphing tool that shows how different prediction models behave on a set of real samples. It shows two linear models: One Baume per...read more
In the last post, we considered the situations where we had little or no historical data for the vineyard of interest. In this post, we consider our preferred situation: we have data. When we have historical data In this case, we can model ripening rates with a view...read more